Mark Twain quote: "There are three kinds of lies:
lies, damned lies, and statistics."
2014 October Report – All Rights Reserved
October 22, 2014 foals born in 2014 and registered in year of birth, 2014 todate:
bay = 280
chestnut = 166
grey = 191
black = 57
roan = 1
white = 1
TOTAL: 696 foals born in 2014 and registered by October 22, 2014 (birth year).
PLEASE note an almost 0% drop from 2013 birth year (718 foals – see below) to 2014 birth year (696 foals). 340 foals registered in last month.
September 23, 2014 – 356
August 22, 2014 - 241
October 22, 2013, year of birth – report from last year, please read ! ! !:
bay = 311
chestnut = 167
grey = 187
black = 53
TOTAL: 718 foals born in 2013 and registered in 2013, October 22, 2013 (birth year).
Almost impossible to project until more statistics are collected next year in 2015, a first time impossible to calculate.
Bear in mind that percentage wise usually about 50% of the number of mares bred have foals . Various veterinarian reports say up to 65%, however, many breeders tend to use 50% figure. Required Stallion Reports submitted by December 31 of the breeding year would reveal total number of mares bred in a year. Those figures have never been revealed to the public or to Arabian owners/breeders.
A An 8.6% drop in registered foals from 2012 to 2013 which is the lowest drop in many years. If 2015 statistics shows a similarity to 2013 statistics taken today  with only an 8.6% drop, foal numbers would still be around 2342 for foals born in 2014. Difference of 241 foals.
B. If the zero percentage of drop from 2013 to 2014 foals (birth year) is used, then the total registered foals for 2014 would be around 2300 to 2400. Only next year's registrations in the yearling year will show if there is the drop perceived by many as actual.
2803 foals for 2012
2562 foals for 2013
Unknown number foals for 2014 – so far, 696 registered foals
Straight Egyptians: 112 = 16.1% of total foals todate; 35 on August 22, 2014 and 79 on September 23, 2014
2012 there were 413 SE foals registered [14.7% of total number of foals for that year] and in 2013 were 394 SE foals [15.38%]. Difference of only 19 foals. There were 189 on 12/12/2013. SE percentages are used as a checkpoint comparing with overall foal numbers.
COMPARISONS FOR YEARLING YEAR REGISTRATIONS:
October 22, 2014 compilation for foals of 2013 registered in year of birth and into 2014 –
October 22, 2014 for 2013 foals showing as registered on 2014 Datasource:
bay = 1082
chestnut = 619
grey = 703
black = 157
roan = 1
TOTAL: 2562 foals born in 2013 and registered as of October 22, 2014 (yearling year) 2500
Now compare that with 2012 foal totals.
2803 foals of 2012 registered as of Oct. 22, 2013 PLEASE NOTE THE FOAL YEAR 2012 ! ! These are foals born in 2012 and registered in year of birth and into 2013 as of October 22, 2013.
October 22, 2012 foals:
bay = 1187
chestnut = 694
grey = 733
roan = 2
TOTAL: 2803 foals of 2012 registered in year 2012 and up to October 22, 2013 (yearling year).
2562 total foals for 2013 up to October 22, 2014 compared to 2803 foals for 2012 up to October 22, 2013 (like periods) reveals an 8.6% drop.
EXPLANATION PROJECTION MODEL:
Past years, as in the last 10 to 12 years at least, have shown that 60 to 70% of the total number of foals registered for any given year were done in the first year (birth year). Around 30% or less were registered into the following year (yearling year). Balance of percentage is for foals registered after the 23rd month, which used to be calculated at 10% but less than that now, more like a few percent.
THE PROJECTION MODEL DID NOT HOLD TRUE FOR FOALS OF 2013 IN ALL REGARDS. 2013 total foals are way outside the projection model, with final figures closer to 2012 total foals.
The inconsistency within the projection model for number of foals registered for the year 2013 is from the fewer number of foals registered in their birth year (2013 total = 718) and the large number of foals registered in their yearling year (2014 total = 2562 – 718 = 1844). This has not happened previously, not to this degree.
With my calendar year from October 22 current year to October 22 of the next year, statistics for last two years, 2012 and 2013, show about 1200 to 1800 foals registered in the yearling calendar year – ie before their 12th month.
Probably not a factor anymore with the current trend of large number of registrations in the yearling calendar year. Based on 2014 foal numbers if 60% of foal crop were registered in foal year there would be around 1200 total registered foals for 2014. [696 = 60% then 1200 = 100%] Should there be an incentive to register in birth calendar year the percentages would likely be different and again be a factor in the projection model.
Note the projection model developed over the years has always had a two or three year plateau level where foals numbers (allbeit with a steady decrease in numbers) remained fairly same range. Never has there been a four year plateau level. 2012 (2803) and 2013 (2452) are within the projection model as a two-year plateau level. Numbers today suggest there could a three year plateau level with very little decrease in foal registration numbers. .
WHEN ARE FOALS REGISTERED AFTER OCTOBER 22ND?
From my records: statistics were taken at a later date – February 17, 2013, not October 22, 2012:
TOTAL: 1883 foals of 2012 registered as of February 17, 2013- foals born in 2012 and registered up to Feb. 17, 2013.
Total for foals born in 2012 and registered as of October 22, 2013 showed 2803 foals from the birth year 2012 for a difference of 920 foals [2803 - 1883 = 920].
Since no birth year statistics were taken (yearling year statistics only were taken) on October 22, 2012, unknown how many were registered for birth year by October 22, 2012. Therefore, would have to be more than 920 registered after October 22, 2012.